Febrero 2023

Tabla de contenidos

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La rentabilidad de los activos de renta fija [fusion_highlight background=»yes» background_style=»marker_style» color=»var(–awb-color4)» hue=»» saturation=»» lightness=»» alpha=»» rounded=»no» text_color=»var(–awb-color8)» gradient_font=»no» gradient_start_color=»» gradient_end_color=»» gradient_start_position=»0″ gradient_end_position=»100″ gradient_type=»linear» radial_direction=»center center» linear_angle=»180″ class=»» id=»»]ha repuntado en febrero[/fusion_highlight] y los mercados de renta variable emergentes y estadounidense han reaccionado negativamente

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Renta variable

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Tras un inicio de año en que el optimismo de los inversores propició un muy buen comportamiento de la renta variable, los índices bursátiles han perdido fuelle. A nivel global el retroceso ha sido del -3% durante el mes de febrero, especialmente impulsado por el retroceso de los mercados emergentes (-5,8%). Los principales índices estadounidenses también han corregido de forma significativa (-2,6% el S&P 500; -0,5% el Nasdaq 100 y -3,5% el Dow Jones). En Europa, sin embargo, los activos de renta variable han logrado mantenerse en positivo: el Eurostoxx 50 ha avanzado un +1,8% y el Ibex 35 ha destacado positivamente (+4,0%) gracias a la revalorización del sector bancario.

La causa de esta corrección generalizada en los mercados ha sido el cambio de expectativas de los tipos de interés. Tanto la inflación general como subyacente siguen mostrando señales de moderación, pero la confianza del consumidor de EEUU ha caído en febrero por segundo mes consecutivo y el mercado laboral se ha mantenido robusto, combinación que ha hecho pensar a los inversores que los bancos centrales tendrán libertad para seguir siendo agresivos con las subidas de tipos.

[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container][fusion_builder_container type=»flex» hundred_percent=»no» hundred_percent_height=»no» hundred_percent_height_scroll=»no» align_content=»stretch» flex_align_items=»stretch» flex_justify_content=»center» flex_column_spacing=»90px» hundred_percent_height_center_content=»yes» equal_height_columns=»no» container_tag=»div» hide_on_mobile=»small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility» status=»published» margin_top=»0px» margin_bottom=»0px» padding_bottom_medium=»60px» padding_bottom_small=»50px» padding_top=»35px» padding_right=»30px» padding_bottom=»60px» padding_left=»30px» border_sizes_top=»0px» border_sizes_right=»0px» border_sizes_bottom=»0px» border_sizes_left=»0px» border_style=»solid» box_shadow=»no» box_shadow_blur=»0″ box_shadow_spread=»0″ gradient_start_position=»0″ gradient_end_position=»100″ gradient_type=»linear» radial_direction=»center center» linear_angle=»180″ background_color=»#ffffff» background_position=»center center» background_repeat=»no-repeat» fade=»no» background_parallax=»none» enable_mobile=»no» parallax_speed=»0.3″ background_blend_mode=»none» video_aspect_ratio=»16:9″ video_loop=»yes» video_mute=»yes» pattern_bg=»none» pattern_bg_style=»default» pattern_bg_opacity=»100″ pattern_bg_blend_mode=»normal» mask_bg=»none» mask_bg_style=»default» mask_bg_opacity=»100″ mask_bg_transform=»left» mask_bg_blend_mode=»normal» absolute=»off» absolute_devices=»small,medium,large» sticky=»off» sticky_devices=»small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility» sticky_offset=»0″ sticky_transition_offset=»0″ scroll_offset=»0″ animation_direction=»left» animation_speed=»0.3″ animation_offset=»top-into-view» filter_hue=»0″ filter_saturation=»100″ filter_brightness=»100″ filter_contrast=»100″ filter_invert=»0″ filter_sepia=»0″ filter_opacity=»100″ filter_blur=»0″ filter_hue_hover=»0″ filter_saturation_hover=»100″ filter_brightness_hover=»100″ filter_contrast_hover=»100″ filter_invert_hover=»0″ filter_sepia_hover=»0″ filter_opacity_hover=»100″ filter_blur_hover=»0″][fusion_builder_row][fusion_builder_column type=»3_4″ type=»3_4″ layout=»3_4″ hide_on_mobile=»small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility» sticky_display=»normal,sticky» gradient_start_position=»0″ gradient_end_position=»100″ gradient_type=»linear» radial_direction=»center center» linear_angle=»180″ background_position=»left top» background_repeat=»no-repeat» background_blend_mode=»none» border_position=»all» border_style=»solid» box_shadow=»no» box_shadow_blur=»0″ box_shadow_spread=»0″ margin_top=»0px» margin_bottom=»65px» margin_bottom_medium=»60px» margin_bottom_small=»51px» spacing=»4%» padding_top=»0px» padding_right=»0px» padding_bottom=»0px» padding_left=»0px» animation_type=»fade» animation_direction=»static» animation_speed=»1.3″ animation_offset=»top-into-view» target=»_self» hover_type=»none» center_content=»no» filter_hue=»0″ filter_saturation=»100″ filter_brightness=»100″ filter_contrast=»100″ filter_invert=»0″ filter_sepia=»0″ filter_opacity=»100″ filter_blur=»0″ filter_hue_hover=»0″ filter_saturation_hover=»100″ filter_brightness_hover=»100″ filter_contrast_hover=»100″ filter_invert_hover=»0″ filter_sepia_hover=»0″ filter_opacity_hover=»100″ filter_blur_hover=»0″ align_self=»auto» order_medium=»0″ order_small=»0″ align_content=»flex-start» valign_content=»flex-start» content_wrap=»wrap» content_layout=»column» last=»true» background_type=»single» filter_type=»regular» first=»true» min_height=»» link=»»][fusion_title title_type=»text» rotation_effect=»bounceIn» display_time=»1200″ highlight_effect=»circle» loop_animation=»off» highlight_width=»9″ highlight_top_margin=»0″ title_link=»off» link_target=»_self» hide_on_mobile=»small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility» sticky_display=»normal,sticky» content_align=»center» size=»2″ fusion_font_family_title_font=»Epilogue» fusion_font_variant_title_font=»600″ font_size=»53px» line_height=»1.2″ letter_spacing=»-1px» text_transform=»var(–awb-typography1-text-transform)» text_color=»#0a0a0a» text_shadow=»no» text_shadow_blur=»0″ margin_top_small=»10px» margin_right_small=»0px» margin_bottom_small=»10px» margin_left_small=»0px» margin_top=»10px» margin_right=»0px» margin_bottom=»0″ margin_left=»0px» gradient_font=»no» gradient_start_position=»0″ gradient_end_position=»100″ gradient_type=»linear» radial_direction=»center center» linear_angle=»180″ style_type=»default» animation_direction=»left» animation_speed=»0.3″ animation_offset=»top-into-view»]

Deuda pública

[/fusion_title][/fusion_builder_column][fusion_builder_column type=»1_1″ type=»1_1″ layout=»1_3″ hide_on_mobile=»small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility» sticky_display=»normal,sticky» gradient_start_position=»0″ gradient_end_position=»100″ gradient_type=»linear» radial_direction=»center center» linear_angle=»180″ background_position=»left top» background_repeat=»no-repeat» background_blend_mode=»none» border_position=»all» border_style=»solid» box_shadow=»no» box_shadow_blur=»0″ box_shadow_spread=»0″ margin_top=»0px» margin_bottom=»0px» margin_bottom_small=»40px» spacing=»4%» padding_top=»0px» padding_right=»0px» padding_bottom=»0px» padding_left=»0px» animation_type=»fade» animation_direction=»up» animation_speed=»1.3″ animation_offset=»top-into-view» target=»_self» hover_type=»none» center_content=»no» filter_hue=»0″ filter_saturation=»100″ filter_brightness=»100″ filter_contrast=»100″ filter_invert=»0″ filter_sepia=»0″ filter_opacity=»100″ filter_blur=»0″ filter_hue_hover=»0″ filter_saturation_hover=»100″ filter_brightness_hover=»100″ filter_contrast_hover=»100″ filter_invert_hover=»0″ filter_sepia_hover=»0″ filter_opacity_hover=»100″ filter_blur_hover=»0″ align_self=»auto» order_medium=»0″ order_small=»0″ align_content=»flex-start» valign_content=»flex-start» content_wrap=»wrap» content_layout=»column» last=»true» background_type=»single» filter_type=»regular» first=»true» spacing_right=»2%» min_height=»» link=»»][fusion_text columns=»1″ column_min_width=»100px» column_spacing=»2em» rule_size=»1″ hide_on_mobile=»small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility» sticky_display=»normal,sticky» margin_bottom=»0″ font_size=»17px» line_height=»1.7″ letter_spacing=»0″ text_transform=»var(–awb-typography4-text-transform)» text_color=»#0a0a0a» animation_direction=»left» animation_speed=»0.3″ animation_offset=»top-into-view»]

Las curvas de tipos de interés han repuntado durante el mes de febrero, más que compensando el retroceso que vivimos en enero. Tal repunte ha sido superior en el tramo corto que en el largo, por lo que continúa el aumento de la pendiente de la curva (recordar que una curva negativa significa que los mercados consideran que los tipos volverán a bajar en el futuro).

En Alemania, el aumento de la TIR se cuantifica en 46 pb en el tramo a 2 años (3,11%) y en 33 pb en el 10 años, que se sitúa en el 2,64%.  El repunte de la TIR en febrero de la curva de deuda pública estadounidense ha sido de +62 pb en el tramo a 2 años (+4,83%) y +43 pb en el 10 años (+3,94%).

A pesar del importante aumento de las rentabilidades en la deuda pública alemana, no hemos visto un aumento de la prima por riesgo de la periferia de la UME (ya que las TIR de estos países han aumentado en menor medida). En España, la TIR a 2 años cotiza en 3,28% (+ 43 pb en febrero) y a 10 años se encuentra en el 3,65% (+ 33 pb).

El mercado sigue pendiente de la robustez de los datos económicos y de cualquier mensaje que se lance desde los bancos centrales. En este sentido, el Comité de Mercado Abierto de la Fed el 21 y 22 de marzo podría anticipar próximos movimientos en los tipos de interés.

[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container][fusion_builder_container type=»flex» hundred_percent=»no» hundred_percent_height=»no» hundred_percent_height_scroll=»no» align_content=»stretch» flex_align_items=»stretch» flex_justify_content=»center» flex_column_spacing=»90px» hundred_percent_height_center_content=»yes» equal_height_columns=»no» container_tag=»div» hide_on_mobile=»small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility» status=»published» margin_top=»0px» margin_bottom=»0px» padding_bottom_medium=»60px» padding_bottom_small=»50px» padding_top=»35px» padding_right=»30px» padding_bottom=»0px» padding_left=»30px» border_sizes_top=»0px» border_sizes_right=»0px» border_sizes_bottom=»0px» border_sizes_left=»0px» border_style=»solid» box_shadow=»no» box_shadow_blur=»0″ box_shadow_spread=»0″ gradient_start_position=»0″ gradient_end_position=»100″ gradient_type=»linear» radial_direction=»center center» linear_angle=»180″ background_color=»#ffffff» background_position=»center center» background_repeat=»no-repeat» fade=»no» background_parallax=»none» enable_mobile=»no» parallax_speed=»0.3″ background_blend_mode=»none» video_aspect_ratio=»16:9″ video_loop=»yes» video_mute=»yes» pattern_bg=»none» pattern_bg_style=»default» pattern_bg_opacity=»100″ pattern_bg_blend_mode=»normal» mask_bg=»none» mask_bg_style=»default» mask_bg_opacity=»100″ mask_bg_transform=»left» mask_bg_blend_mode=»normal» absolute=»off» absolute_devices=»small,medium,large» sticky=»off» sticky_devices=»small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility» sticky_offset=»0″ sticky_transition_offset=»0″ scroll_offset=»0″ animation_direction=»left» animation_speed=»0.3″ animation_offset=»top-into-view» filter_hue=»0″ filter_saturation=»100″ filter_brightness=»100″ filter_contrast=»100″ filter_invert=»0″ filter_sepia=»0″ filter_opacity=»100″ filter_blur=»0″ filter_hue_hover=»0″ filter_saturation_hover=»100″ filter_brightness_hover=»100″ filter_contrast_hover=»100″ filter_invert_hover=»0″ filter_sepia_hover=»0″ filter_opacity_hover=»100″ filter_blur_hover=»0″][fusion_builder_row][fusion_builder_column type=»3_4″ type=»3_4″ layout=»3_4″ hide_on_mobile=»small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility» sticky_display=»normal,sticky» gradient_start_position=»0″ gradient_end_position=»100″ gradient_type=»linear» radial_direction=»center center» linear_angle=»180″ background_position=»left top» background_repeat=»no-repeat» background_blend_mode=»none» border_position=»all» border_style=»solid» box_shadow=»no» box_shadow_blur=»0″ box_shadow_spread=»0″ margin_top=»0px» margin_bottom=»65px» margin_bottom_medium=»60px» margin_bottom_small=»51px» spacing=»4%» padding_top=»0px» padding_right=»0px» padding_bottom=»0px» padding_left=»0px» animation_type=»fade» animation_direction=»static» animation_speed=»1.3″ animation_offset=»top-into-view» target=»_self» hover_type=»none» center_content=»no» filter_hue=»0″ filter_saturation=»100″ filter_brightness=»100″ filter_contrast=»100″ filter_invert=»0″ filter_sepia=»0″ filter_opacity=»100″ filter_blur=»0″ filter_hue_hover=»0″ filter_saturation_hover=»100″ filter_brightness_hover=»100″ filter_contrast_hover=»100″ filter_invert_hover=»0″ filter_sepia_hover=»0″ filter_opacity_hover=»100″ filter_blur_hover=»0″ align_self=»auto» order_medium=»0″ order_small=»0″ align_content=»flex-start» valign_content=»flex-start» content_wrap=»wrap» content_layout=»column» last=»true» background_type=»single» filter_type=»regular» first=»true» min_height=»» link=»»][fusion_title title_type=»text» rotation_effect=»bounceIn» display_time=»1200″ highlight_effect=»circle» loop_animation=»off» highlight_width=»9″ highlight_top_margin=»0″ title_link=»off» link_target=»_self» hide_on_mobile=»small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility» sticky_display=»normal,sticky» content_align=»center» size=»2″ fusion_font_family_title_font=»Epilogue» fusion_font_variant_title_font=»600″ font_size=»53px» line_height=»1.2″ letter_spacing=»-1px» text_transform=»var(–awb-typography1-text-transform)» text_color=»#0a0a0a» text_shadow=»no» text_shadow_blur=»0″ margin_top_small=»10px» margin_right_small=»0px» margin_bottom_small=»10px» margin_left_small=»0px» margin_top=»10px» margin_right=»0px» margin_bottom=»0″ margin_left=»0px» gradient_font=»no» gradient_start_position=»0″ gradient_end_position=»100″ gradient_type=»linear» radial_direction=»center center» linear_angle=»180″ style_type=»default» animation_direction=»left» animation_speed=»0.3″ animation_offset=»top-into-view»]

Nuestra valoración

[/fusion_title][/fusion_builder_column][fusion_builder_column type=»1_1″ type=»1_1″ layout=»1_3″ hide_on_mobile=»small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility» sticky_display=»normal,sticky» gradient_start_position=»0″ gradient_end_position=»100″ gradient_type=»linear» radial_direction=»center center» linear_angle=»180″ background_position=»left top» background_repeat=»no-repeat» background_blend_mode=»none» border_position=»all» border_style=»solid» box_shadow=»no» box_shadow_blur=»0″ box_shadow_spread=»0″ margin_top=»0px» margin_bottom=»0px» margin_bottom_small=»40px» spacing=»4%» padding_top=»0px» padding_right=»0px» padding_bottom=»0px» padding_left=»0px» animation_type=»fade» animation_direction=»up» animation_speed=»1.3″ animation_offset=»top-into-view» target=»_self» hover_type=»none» center_content=»no» filter_hue=»0″ filter_saturation=»100″ filter_brightness=»100″ filter_contrast=»100″ filter_invert=»0″ filter_sepia=»0″ filter_opacity=»100″ filter_blur=»0″ filter_hue_hover=»0″ filter_saturation_hover=»100″ filter_brightness_hover=»100″ filter_contrast_hover=»100″ filter_invert_hover=»0″ filter_sepia_hover=»0″ filter_opacity_hover=»100″ filter_blur_hover=»0″ align_self=»auto» order_medium=»0″ order_small=»0″ align_content=»flex-start» valign_content=»flex-start» content_wrap=»wrap» content_layout=»column» last=»true» background_type=»single» filter_type=»regular» first=»true» spacing_right=»2%» min_height=»» link=»»][fusion_text columns=»1″ column_min_width=»100px» column_spacing=»2em» rule_size=»1″ hide_on_mobile=»small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility» sticky_display=»normal,sticky» margin_bottom=»0″ font_size=»17px» line_height=»1.7″ letter_spacing=»0″ text_transform=»var(–awb-typography4-text-transform)» text_color=»#0a0a0a» animation_direction=»left» animation_speed=»0.3″ animation_offset=»top-into-view»]

Si bien la caída de la inflación aumenta nuestra convicción de que los bancos centrales podrán dejar de subir tipos en algún momento de este año, creemos que, para lograr que la inflación se acerque a su objetivo (2%), se requerirán tipos altos por un periodo de tiempo seguramente mayor al que cotizan actualmente los mercados. Esto implicaría una volatilidad persistente en los mercados de renta variable hasta el momento en que haya mayor claridad sobre el nivel máximo de los tipos de interés de la renta fija.

Seguimos recomendando una inversión mediante aportaciones periódicas, así como una cartera diversificada y adaptada a tu perfil de riesgo como la mejor estrategia para protegerte de esta situación.

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