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Marzo se ha saldado con alzas en los principales mercados bursátiles a pesar de las turbulencias asociadas al colapso de Sillicon Valley Bank. La rentabilidad de los activos de renta fija ha retrocedido de forma significativa.
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Renta variable
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Los mercados bursátiles han recuperado un tono muy positivo durante la segunda mitad del mes de marzo. En Estados Unidos, el S&P 500 se ha revalorizado un 3,5% con respecto al cierre de febrero y el Nasdaq 100 lo ha hecho un 6,7%, ambos especialmente impulsados por el sector tecnológico.
La excepción ha sido el IBEX35 (-1,7%), así como otros índices con una exposición significativa al sector bancario (como son el FTSE 100 o el MIB).
La causa de este repunte generalizado en los mercados ha sido la cesión de los tipos de interés, ya que quita atractivo a la renta fija y lo traslada a la renta variable.
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Deuda pública
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Las curvas de tipos de interés han retrocedido durante el mes de marzo de forma generalizada, pero con especial fuerza en Estados Unidos.
Las caídas de tipos se han dado con más intensidad en el tramo corto que en el largo, reduciendo así la pendiente negativa de las curvas y evidenciando un cambio en las expectativas de la futura evolución de la política monetaria.
En Estados Unidos, la TIR del bono a 2 años ha corregido 80 pb (cerró en el 4,04%%) y a 10 años lo ha hecho 50 pb (cerrando en el 3,47%).
En Alemania, la caída de la TIR se cuantifica en 41 pb en el tramo a 2 años (2,70%) y en 34 pb en el 10 años (2,30%). En España, la TIR a 2 años cotiza en 2,87% (- 41 pb en marzo) y a 10 años se encuentra en el 3,30% (- 36 pb).
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Nuestra valoración
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Los datos macroeconómicos desde principios de año refuerzan las esperanzas de que las principales economías se limiten a sufrir una recesión leve o incluso la puedan evitar por completo. Es por este motivo que el tono optimista de los mercados nos genera cierta confianza.
Sin embargo, no debemos perder de vista que los bancos centrales aún se encuentran en una situación muy comprometida (no está claro que la inflación subyacente se encuentre bajo control) y, por lo tanto, no podemos descartar un volumen de subidas de tipos adicionales que puedan acabar dañando a la economía de forma importante (algo que el mercado no está cotizando actualmente).
Con todo, recomendamos gestionar les inversiones en renta variable de forma muy prudente y combinarlo con la inversión en algunas de las oportunidades de perfil conservador que están surgiendo en el contexto actual de tipos de interés.
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