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min_height=»» link=»»][fusion_title title_type=»text» rotation_effect=»bounceIn» display_time=»1200″ highlight_effect=»circle» loop_animation=»off» highlight_width=»9″ highlight_top_margin=»0″ before_text=»» rotation_text=»» highlight_text=»» after_text=»» title_link=»off» link_url=»» link_target=»_self» hide_on_mobile=»small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility» sticky_display=»normal,sticky» class=»» id=»» content_align_medium=»» content_align_small=»» content_align=»left» size=»2″ animated_font_size=»» fusion_font_family_title_font=»Epilogue» fusion_font_variant_title_font=»600″ font_size=»60px» line_height=»1.05″ letter_spacing=»-1px» text_transform=»var(–awb-typography1-text-transform)» text_color=»#0a0a0a» hue=»» saturation=»» lightness=»» alpha=»» animated_text_color=»» text_shadow=»no» text_shadow_vertical=»» text_shadow_horizontal=»» text_shadow_blur=»0″ text_shadow_color=»» margin_top_medium=»» margin_right_medium=»» margin_bottom_medium=»» margin_left_medium=»» 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Las bolsas han seguido recuperándose durante el mes de Abril, mientras la rentabilidad de los activos de renta fija se ha mantenido estable.
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Renta variable
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Los mercados bursátiles han conservado un tono muy positivo durante el mes de abril. En Estados Unidos, el S&P 500 se ha revalorizado un 1,5% con respecto al cierre de marzo, el Dow Jones lo ha hecho un 2,5% y el Nasdaq 100 un 0,5%. En Europa, el Eurostoxx 50 ha avanzado un 1%. Los sectores menos sensibles al ciclo económico han sido los que más se han avanzado durante el mes (en concreto, el sector de consumo básico, comunicación, finanzas y salud).
A pesar del tono general positivo, los mercados emergentes han destacado negativamente (el índice Hang Seng de China ha retrocedido un 2,5%).
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Deuda pública
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Tras la fuerte cesión de los tipos de interés de la deuda pública en marzo, los movimientos han sido mínimos durante el mes de abril.
En el caso de Estados Unidos, el tipo de interés del tramo corto ha caído 2 puntos básicos (pb), mientras que el tramo largo ha permanecido inalterado. Así, la pendiente de la curva se ha estabilizado tras el aumento observado con motivo de la quiebra de Silicon Valley Bank.
En Alemania, los tipos han augmentado en 3 y 2 pb en los tramos corto y largo respectivamente. La curva mantiene su pendiente negativa en la que se introdujo a mediados de noviembre.
Los repuntes han sido algo más relevantes en España. El bono a 2 años ha repuntado 12 pb, mientras a 10 años lo ha hecho en 6 pb. Como consecuencia, la prima por riesgo ha aumentado ligeramente.
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Nuestra valoración
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Las señales apuntaban a una inflación más moderada en abril, ya que el índice de precios al productor de Estados Unidos cayó hasta el 2,75%. Sin embargo, no será hasta que los bancos centrales determinen que la inflación subyacente (índice de precios al consumo excluyendo los productos energéticos y los alimentos frescos) está controlada, cuando podamos realmente evaluar las consecuencias de las subidas de tipos en la economía.
Tal incertidumbre en torno al ciclo económico, junto con la consideración de que las subidas de tipos podrían estar llegando a su fin, nos llevan a recomendar tanto inversiones con perfil conservador (capital garantizado y tipo de interés atractivo) como un aumento de la exposición a activos de renta fija.
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