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Los activos de riesgo del sector tecnológico han seguido revalorizándose y las ventas de bonos se han impuesto en EEUU.
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Renta variable
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Los mercados de capitales se han mostrado volátiles durante el mes de mayo a causa de los debates sobre el tope de endeudamiento y la posible incapacidad del Tesoro de EE.UU. para pagar la deuda a principios de junio. Además, el aumento de los riesgos de un “aterrizaje duro” de la economía tras el rápido incremento de los tipos de interés ha penalizado el comportamiento de los activos de riesgo a nivel global.
Sin embargo, la solidez generalizada de los resultados corporativos y la atracción por el sector tecnológico han corregido gran parte de este comportamiento durante la segunda quincena del mes. Así, mientras sectores geográficos como Europa y China han caído con fuerza (-3,2% y -8,3%) respectivamente, los índices globales lo han hecho en menor medida (-1,2%), la renta variable japonesa ha destacado positivamente (+7%) y en Estados Unidos el Nasdaq 100 ha repuntado un +7,6% (aupado por las FAANG y en especial NVDIA y compañías de semiconductores vinculadas a la inteligencia artificial).
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Deuda pública
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Durante el mes de mayo, los inversores han vendido bonos de EE.UU de forma significativa. La TIR del bono del gobierno a 2 años ha subido +39 p.b. en el periodo (hasta el 4,40%) y a 10 años lo ha hecho en +21 p.b. (hasta el 3,65%) tras mucha volatilidad hasta el momento en que quedó confirmado el acuerdo para suspender el techo de la deuda. Como consecuencia, la pendiente negativa de la curva ha vuelto a intensificarse.
En la Zona Euro, la rentabilidad de los bonos del gobierno alemán han cerrado el mes en niveles muy próximos a los de inicio. En España, la TIR del bono a 10 años ha retrocedido ligeramente (-4 p.b., hasta el 3,33%) y la prima por riesgo se ha mantenido en torno a los 100 p.b. (que contrasta con el mínimo de +57 p.b. alcanzado en febrero de 2021).
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Nuestra valoración
Las señales de debilidad en las principales economías mundiales siguen en aumento (indicadores como la confianza empresarial, las previsiones de morosidad y el nivel de ahorros de los consumidores empeoran).
Sin embargo, y a pesar de que los datos de inflación sigan sin mejorar sustancialmente, tal situación de incertidumbre debería acercarnos más rápidamente al techo de los tipos de interés tanto en Estados Unidos como en Europa, lo que beneficiará a los activos de riesgo en adelante.
En este contexto, creemos que nos encontramos en un momento ideal para invertir en renta fija y mantener carteras de renta variable bien diversificadas.
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