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Las bolsas han cerrado el mes de junio con importantes avances, al tiempo que los bonos de deuda han experimentado perdidas a nivel global.
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radial_direction=»center center» linear_angle=»180″ highlight_color=»» style_type=»default» sep_color=»» link_color=»» link_hover_color=»» animation_type=»» animation_direction=»left» animation_speed=»0.3″ animation_offset=»» /][fusion_title title_type=»text» rotation_effect=»bounceIn» display_time=»1200″ highlight_effect=»circle» loop_animation=»off» highlight_width=»9″ highlight_top_margin=»0″ title_link=»off» link_target=»_self» hide_on_mobile=»small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility» sticky_display=»normal,sticky» content_align=»center» size=»2″ text_shadow=»no» text_shadow_blur=»0″ gradient_font=»no» gradient_start_position=»0″ gradient_end_position=»100″ gradient_type=»linear» radial_direction=»center center» linear_angle=»180″ style_type=»default» animation_direction=»left» animation_speed=»0.3″]
Renta variable
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Los últimos datos de inflación publicados en Estados Unidos y en Europa, junto con unas mejores expectativas de beneficios empresariales al cierre del año han propiciado un tono muy positivo de los mercados de capitales durante el mes de junio.
Los principales índices han repuntado de forma destacada. En Estados Unidos, el Nasdaq Composite y el S&P lo han hecho en torno al 6,5%, al tiempo que el Dow Jones ha avanzado un 4,5%. En Europa, el Eurostoxx se ha revalorizado en un 4,3% y el IBEX ha destacado con un aumento del 6%. Finalmente, sigue sorprendiendo el optimismo de los inversores con respecto a la economía japonesa, que ha resultado en un avance del Nikkei del 7,5% en junio.
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Deuda pública
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Los tipos de interés de la deuda pública han repuntado de forma generalizada, si bien de manera más acusada en el tramo corto. En el caso de Estados Unidos, la TIR a 2 años ha repuntado 50 pb (hasta el 4,90% frente al 5,05% de principios de marzo) y a 10 años se ha elevado en 20 pb (hasta el 3,84%). Así, la pendiente inversa de la curva ha vuelto a situarse en niveles máximos.
En Alemania, y tras dos meses de movimiento prácticamente nulo, la rentabilidad del tramo corto (2 años) ha repuntado 53 pb (hasta el 2,26%) y el Bund a 10 años ha elevado su rentabilidad en 11 pb (hasta el 2,39%).
Finalmente, la rentabilidad de la deuda española ha repuntado en menor medida, reduciendo así la prima de riesgo: +49 pb en el bono a 2 años (alcanzando el 3,49%) y + 6 pb a 10 años (3,38%).
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Nuestra valoración
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El hecho de que la inflación haya continuado mejorando y los principales bancos centrales hayan cumplido con las previsiones (a pesar de mantener el tono restrictivo en sus comunicados) brinda mayor tranquilidad para los inversores en adelante.
Así, si bien el menor volumen de operaciones en los mercados durante los meses de verano podría generar un repunte de volatilidad, consideramos que el contexto es cada vez más favorable para la inversión tanto en renta fija como en renta variable.
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