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Sigue la revalorización de las bolsas mientras la rentabilidad de la deuda pública se reduce a corto plazo y aumenta a largo.
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Renta variable
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Los índices globales han avanzado más del 3% durante el mes de julio, con lo que la revalorización acumulada en lo que va de año es de entorno al 17%.
El mercado que más ha repuntado, de entre los de referencia, es el Nasdaq: +4% en julio, lo que supone un +37% en el año. Por su lado, han destacado los índices bursátiles chinos por su buen comportamiento a pesar de que su economía sigue sin recuperar el dinamismo esperado.
Por lo que respecta a Europa, los índices han mostrado una peor evolución relativa a raíz de la cesión de sectores con elevado peso como son el de Utilities y Telecomunicaciones. el Eurostoxx ha avanzado un 1,6%, el DAX un 1,9% y el IBEX 35 un 0,5%.
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Deuda pública
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Durante el mes de julio, tanto el BCE como la Reserva Federal de EE.UU se han ajustado a las expectativas del mercado y han elevado sus tipos de interés de referencia en 25 pb. Tal movimiento supone una acumulación de subidas inédita, con los tipos (4,25% en el BCE, 5,25% – 5,50% en la Fed) alcanzando niveles no vistos desde antes del inicio de la crisis subprime (2008).
En el caso de EE.UU., la TIR a 2 años ha retrocedido 2 pb al cierre del mes, hasta el 4,94% (aunque llegó a cotizar en el 5,16% el 6 de julio). Por su parte, la TIR del bono a 10 años se eleva en 13 pb, hasta el 3,97% (si bien tocó el 4,12% en los máximos del mes). La pendiente ha corregido un poco su signo negativo desde máximos.
En Alemania, la rentabilidad del bono a 2 años cede 6 pb, hasta el 3,21%, propiciado por las señales de deterioro del ciclo económico en la eurozona. En cambio, el Bund a 10 años eleva su TIR en 7 pb, hasta el 2,47%. Así, en este caso también se ha reducido la pendiente negativa de la curva.
En España, la TIR a 2 años ha retrocedido 8 pb (hasta el 3,42%), mientras que en el tramo largo ha repuntado 13 pb (hasta el 3,51%). La prima por riesgo ha repuntado 6 pb.
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animation_speed=»1.3″ animation_offset=»top-into-view» last=»true» border_position=»all» first=»true» min_height=»» link=»»][fusion_title title_type=»text» rotation_effect=»bounceIn» display_time=»1200″ highlight_effect=»circle» loop_animation=»off» highlight_width=»9″ highlight_top_margin=»0″ before_text=»» rotation_text=»» highlight_text=»» after_text=»» title_link=»off» link_url=»» link_target=»_self» hide_on_mobile=»small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility» sticky_display=»normal,sticky» class=»» id=»» content_align_medium=»» content_align_small=»» content_align=»center» size=»2″ animated_font_size=»» fusion_font_family_title_font=»» fusion_font_variant_title_font=»» font_size=»» line_height=»» letter_spacing=»» text_transform=»» text_color=»» hue=»» saturation=»» lightness=»» alpha=»» animated_text_color=»» text_shadow=»no» text_shadow_vertical=»» text_shadow_horizontal=»» text_shadow_blur=»0″ text_shadow_color=»» margin_top_medium=»» margin_right_medium=»» 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Nuestra valoración
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A pesar del adicional endurecimiento de la política monetaria, se han evidenciado cambios en el mensaje de los bancos centrales y la inflación ha continuado moderándose (en la zona euro se sitúa en el 4,5% y en Estados Unidos en el 3%).
Consideramos que los últimos cambios de política monetaria no han impactado de manera significativa a los mercados porque ya se habían anticipado por parte de los inversores y que es altamente probable que se haya llegado al final del proceso de subida de tipos de interés (ya que los actuales niveles ya sí están impactando en la economía).
Con todo, recomendamos la inversión en activos de renta fija, aunque sin olvidar que el activo que mayor rentabilidad nos brindará a medio y largo plazo debería seguir siendo la renta variable.
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