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La incertidumbre que aún sobrevuela las economías se manifiesta en agosto en forma de fuertes correcciones de los activos de riesgo.
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Renta variable
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A pesar del sólido primer semestre de 2023, la preocupación por China, la revisión a la baja de las previsiones de crecimiento de los beneficios empresariales y el temor a posibles subidas de tipos de interés adicionales por parte de la Reserva Federal han propiciado un mal comportamiento de los activos de riesgo durante el mes de agosto. Sin embargo, la recuperación de las bolsas en la parte final del mes permite que el saldo negativo no sea muy significativo (con los índices mundiales más representativos retrocediendo en torno a un -3%).
Por el lado positivo ha destacado la resistencia de algunos mercados como el S&P 500 o el Ibex 35 (que únicamente han retrocedido en un -1,8% y -1,4% respectivamente). Por el lado negativo, peor evolución de las bolsas emergentes ante la mayor caída de Hong Kong (-8,5%) y de China (-6,2%).
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Deuda pública
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El mes de agosto empezó con repuntes significativos y generalizados de los tipos de interés de la deuda pública ante temores de posibles alzas adicionales de los tipos de interés (temores que quedaron reforzados por los comentarios del presidente de la Fed en la reunión de Jackson Hole). Sin embargo, el consenso de mercado recogido por Bloomberg se ha mantenido en la idea de que ya se habría visto el techo de los topos tanto por parte del Banco Central Europeo y como de la Reserva Federal. Así, las TIR de los principales bonos retrocedieron para cerrar el mes con un tono mixto en función de la geografía.
En Estados Unidos, la TIR a 2 años, después de haber marcado un máximo anual en el 5,14% (+20 pb), ha cerrado agosto prácticamente sin cambios en el 4,86%. Por su parte, la TIR del bono a 10 años se eleva en +14 pb, hasta el 4,11%.
En Alemania, el tramo corto ha cedido -23 pb hasta el 2,98 % (tras haberlo hecho -6 pb en julio) propiciado por las nuevas señales de deterioro del ciclo económico en la eurozona. El Bund a 10 años se ha mantenido sin cambios con respecto al cierre de julio (2,47%) si bien alcanzó el 2,64% el día 10 de julio.
En España, la TIR a 10 años cotiza en el 3,48% (-4 pb a lo largo del mes), por lo que la prima por riesgo ha cedido 3 pb.
Con todo, la pendiente de las curvas de tipos de estas economías ha recudido su pendiente negativa durante el mes de agosto.
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animation_speed=»1.3″ animation_offset=»top-into-view» last=»true» border_position=»all» first=»true» min_height=»» link=»»][fusion_title title_type=»text» rotation_effect=»bounceIn» display_time=»1200″ highlight_effect=»circle» loop_animation=»off» highlight_width=»9″ highlight_top_margin=»0″ before_text=»» rotation_text=»» highlight_text=»» after_text=»» title_link=»off» link_url=»» link_target=»_self» hide_on_mobile=»small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility» sticky_display=»normal,sticky» class=»» id=»» content_align_medium=»» content_align_small=»» content_align=»center» size=»2″ animated_font_size=»» fusion_font_family_title_font=»» fusion_font_variant_title_font=»» font_size=»» line_height=»» letter_spacing=»» text_transform=»» text_color=»» hue=»» saturation=»» lightness=»» alpha=»» animated_text_color=»» text_shadow=»no» text_shadow_vertical=»» text_shadow_horizontal=»» text_shadow_blur=»0″ text_shadow_color=»» margin_top_medium=»» margin_right_medium=»» 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Nuestra valoración
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La incertidumbre en torno a la evolución de la inflación, el comportamiento de los bancos centrales y la resistencia de las economías a la rápida subida de tipos de los últimos meses sigue guiando al mercado. Tales temores, junto con un mes con pocas transacciones como es agosto, han propiciado un mal comportamiento de los activos de riesgo.
Por su lado, las TIR de los bonos de Estados Unidos, Alemania y los países de la periferia europea repuntaron de forma generalizada, pero han corregido más recientemente para cerrar de forma mixta.
En cualquier caso, y en línea con el consenso de mercado, consideramos que las subidas de tipos ya han rozado máximos y por lo tanto nos encontramos ante una buena oportunidad de entrada en activos de renta fija. Sin embargo, los activos de riesgo deben seguir gestionándose en carteras de medio/largo plazo en las que buscamos rentabilidades reales positivas.
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